CF Industries (CF)
Turns natural gas into the nitrogen fertiliser that helps farmers grow bigger crops.
Is CF Industries a good stock for a UK beginner?
The honest version: Turns natural gas into the nitrogen fertiliser that helps farmers grow bigger crops.
Over about 2 years to 2026-07-31. This is the share price only - reinvesting the dividends would add to it. And it's the USD return - as a UK investor your actual £ return also moves with the exchange rate. Past performance is not a guide to the future, and it could just as easily have fallen.
Based on beta - how much the price swings versus the whole market. Bumpier isn't bad; it just means a rougher ride, which matters more the sooner you might need the money.
Prices move on results, news and the mood of the whole market - no single headline explains a day, and a quiet week is usually just noise, not a signal.
structurally tight nitrogen supply and steady global food demand support durable margins
new fertilizer production capacity globally or a shift in relative energy costs erodes the company's cost position over time
What does CF Industries do?
CF Industries uses natural gas to make ammonia, then converts it into the nitrogen-based fertilisers farmers spread on fields to boost their harvests. The profit maths is basically a spread: fertiliser selling prices minus natural-gas costs. Both of those are set by global commodity markets, not by anything CF itself controls. The one thing worth watching -> that gap between fertiliser prices and gas costs.
On our factor screen it looks strongest on momentum and growth, and weakest on value.
- ✓Pays a dividend - about 1.9% a year
- ✓Growing - revenue up about 19% over the year
- ✓Very profitable - turns about 24% of sales into profit
- ·Low P/E of 11 vs last year's earnings
- ✓Strong return on shareholder money (ROE 27%)
- Growth screens high (80/100)
- Momentum screens high (82/100)
- Income screens high (75/100)
- healthy net margin and return on equity for a commodity producer
- dividend income alongside potential price movement
- natural gas price volatility in its main production regions
- global fertilizer oversupply from new production capacity
- agricultural commodity price cycles affecting farmer purchasing
What do CF Industries's numbers mean?
How much money does CF Industries make?
Revenue and profit by quarter, and how much of each sale turns into profit.
Does CF Industries pay a dividend?
Yes - CF Industries currently pays a dividend of about 1.9% a year (the yearly payout as a share of the price). A dividend is a slice of profit handed to shareholders; the yield moves as the price moves, and a company can cut or stop it.
When does CF Industries report earnings, and how did recent quarters go?
CF Industries is next scheduled to report on about 2026-08-05 - dates can move, and we don't predict results; this just tells you when to look.
Each quarter a company reports its results against what analysts expected. ‘Beating’ or ‘missing’ is about that expectation, not whether the business is doing well in absolute terms.
| Reported | Expected EPS: The earnings per share analysts expected for the quarter - the average of their forecasts. 'Beating' or 'missing' is measured against this number. | Actual EPS | vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | $2.66 | $2.89 | Beat +9% |
| 2026-02-18 | $2.47 | $3.06 | Beat +24% |
| 2025-11-05 | $2.07 | $2.19 | Beat +6% |
| 2025-08-06 | $2.47 | $2.39 | Missed -3% |
| 2025-05-07 | $1.50 | $1.98 | Beat +32% |
| 2025-02-19 | $1.51 | $1.79 | Beat +18% |
Across the last 6 quarters here, CF Industries came in ahead of what analysts expected 5 times. One quarter is noise, not a trend.
See who else reports over the next two weeks →
Reported vs expected earnings per share (EPS) from published results; the expectation is the analyst consensus, not our view. Report dates are estimates that can move.
More in Basic Materials
Newmont
Endeavour Mining
Fresnillo
Nucor
Steel Dynamics, Inc.
Freeport-McMoRan Inc.
Corteva, Inc.
Albemarle CorporationWhat are the scenarios for CF Industries?
An illustrative range for the year ahead, with the assumption behind each case — not a prediction or a price target.
What are the pros and cons of CF Industries?
How many points the write-up makes each way — a balance check, not a score or verdict.
- healthy net margin and return on equity for a commodity producer
- dividend income alongside potential price movement
- forward multiple close to the trailing figure, suggesting relatively stable near-term expectations
- heavily exposed to swings in both its main input cost (natural gas) and its output price (fertilizer)
- revenue and profit are tied to cyclical agricultural and energy markets outside the company's control
- natural gas price volatility in its main production regions
- global fertilizer oversupply from new production capacity
- agricultural commodity price cycles affecting farmer purchasing
- environmental and regulatory costs tied to gas-intensive production
The write-up's own warning lights — if these start happening, the case above changes.
- natural gas prices spiking without a matching rise in fertilizer prices
- global nitrogen capacity additions exceeding demand growth
- crop prices falling sharply and reducing farmer fertilizer purchases
- reported margins compressing versus recent levels
Built from public filings & market prices, checked for an education-only tone, and never a price target. How we make these →