CF Industries (CF)
Turns natural gas into the nitrogen fertiliser that helps farmers grow bigger crops.
Is CF Industries a good stock for a UK beginner?
The honest version: There's no rating here and nothing for sale. In its favour: healthy net margin and return on equity for a commodity producer. Worth weighing: heavily exposed to swings in both its main input cost (natural gas) and its output price (fertilizer).
Is this normal for this company?
Each figure against the range this same company has produced recently. Neither end of a range is the good end.
Share price divided by the earnings actually reported over the four most recent quarters. The range is the same calculation at each of this company's last few results, so roughly the past year.
Profit as a share of sales, from the company's own quarterly statements. The range covers the 5 quarters we hold, and the figure shown is its most recent one.
How these ranges are built
Every number here is the company's own reported figure, not a comparison with other companies. The ranges come from this company's own results and its share price. Where it reports in a different currency from the one its shares trade in, the price-to-earnings range is left out rather than mixing the two.
What does CF Industries do?
CF Industries uses natural gas to make ammonia, then converts it into the nitrogen-based fertilisers farmers spread on fields to boost their harvests. The profit maths is basically a spread: fertiliser selling prices minus natural-gas costs. Both of those are set by global commodity markets, not by anything CF itself controls. The one thing worth watching -> that gap between fertiliser prices and gas costs.
On our factor screen it looks strongest on income and growth, and weakest on momentum.
- ✓Pays a dividend - about 2.0% a year
- ✓Growing - revenue up about 18% over the year
- ✓Very profitable - turns about 27% of sales into profit
- ·Low P/E of 9 vs last year's earnings
- ✓Strong return on shareholder money (ROE 30%)
- Value screens high
- Growth screens high
- Income screens high
- —
Does CF Industries pay a dividend?
Yes - CF Industries currently pays a dividend of about 2.0% a year, which is £20 a year for every £1,000 invested (the yearly payout as a share of the price). A dividend is a slice of profit handed to shareholders; the yield moves as the price moves, and a company can cut or stop it. An ISA doesn't shelter the US tax on this one →
What do the numbers say about CF Industries's dividend?
There's no rating here, and we don't judge whether the dividend will continue - that would be advice. Here are the figures income investors usually look at, and what each one means, so you can weigh it up yourself.
Figures are from the latest available data and can be distorted by one-off results. Past payments don't predict future ones, and a dividend can be cut at any time. This lays out the numbers to help you understand them - it is not a view on what will happen.
Most recent ex-dividend date: 15 May 2026. To receive a dividend you must already own the shares before the ex-dividend date; become a holder on or after it and the previous owner keeps that payment. Why the price usually falls that morning →
Does CF Industries have more cash or more debt?
It holds about $2.48B in cash against about $3.61B of debt - so it has net debt of about $1.13B. Debt is not automatically a problem - it funds growth - but it has to be serviced and repaid, which matters more when profits wobble.
From the latest reported balance sheet. Cash and debt levels change, and some borrowing is normal - this is context, not a judgment.
What do CF Industries's numbers mean?
How has it performed?
Growth of £1,000, the worst fall, and year by year
Over about 2 years to 2026-09-11. This is the share price only - reinvesting the dividends would add to it. And it's the USD return - as a UK investor your actual £ return also moves with the exchange rate. Past performance is not a guide to the future, and it could just as easily have fallen.
How much has CF Industries actually fallen?
Over the last 2 years of daily prices, CF Industries fell as much as −30% from a high to a later low. Falls like this are normal when you own a share.
Past falls are not a forecast - it can fall further, or recover.
How has it done year by year?
Calendar-year total return - the share price with dividends reinvested - from adjusted closing prices. The current year is only part-complete. Past returns are not a guide to the future.
A closer look at the numbers
Ownership, earnings history, where the money goes, and the outlook range
Does the share price tell you if it's cheap or expensive?
Based on beta - how much the price swings versus the whole market. Bumpier isn't bad; it just means a rougher ride, which matters more the sooner you might need the money.
Prices move on results, news and the mood of the whole market - no single headline explains a day, and a quiet week is usually just noise, not a signal.
How much money does CF Industries make?
Revenue and profit by quarter, and how much of each sale turns into profit.
Where does each £100 of CF Industries's sales go?
A rough split of the latest full-year figures: of every £100 of sales, about £58 covers making the product or service, £15 goes on running costs, tax and interest, and about £27 is left as profit. Margins vary a lot by industry, and one-off items can distort a single year.
When does CF Industries report earnings, and how did recent quarters go?
CF Industries is next scheduled to report on about 2026-11-04 - dates can move, and we don't predict results; this just tells you when to look.
‘Beat’ and ‘missed’ are against what analysts expected, not whether the business is doing well.
| Reported | Expected EPS: The earnings per share analysts expected for the quarter - the average of their forecasts. 'Beating' or 'missing' is measured against this number. | Actual EPS | vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | $2.66 | $2.89 | Beat +9% |
| 2026-02-18 | $2.47 | $3.06 | Beat +24% |
| 2025-11-05 | $2.07 | $2.19 | Beat +6% |
| 2025-08-06 | $2.47 | $2.39 | Missed -3% |
| 2025-05-07 | $1.50 | $1.98 | Beat +32% |
| 2025-02-19 | $1.51 | $1.79 | Beat +18% |
Across the last 6 quarters here, CF Industries came in ahead of what analysts expected 5 times. One quarter is noise, not a trend.
See who else reports over the next two weeks →
Where these figures come from
Each quarter a company reports its results against a consensus of analyst forecasts. The figures here are reported versus expected earnings per share from published results; the expectation is that analyst consensus, not our view. Report dates are estimates and can move.
What are the scenarios for CF Industries?
An illustrative range for the year ahead — not a prediction or a price target.
What are the pros, cons and common questions?
The case each way, and the questions people ask
structurally tight nitrogen supply and steady global food demand support durable margins
new fertilizer production capacity globally or a shift in relative energy costs erodes the company's cost position over time
What are the pros and cons of CF Industries?
A balance check, not a score or verdict.
- healthy net margin: How much of each £1 of sales becomes profit after all costs. Higher = more profitable per sale. and return on equity: How much profit the company makes for each £1 shareholders have put in. Higher usually means a more efficient business. for a commodity producer
- dividend income alongside potential price movement
- forward multiple close to the trailing figure, suggesting relatively stable near-term expectations
- heavily exposed to swings in both its main input cost (natural gas) and its output price (fertilizer)
- revenue and profit are tied to cyclical: A business whose sales and profits rise and fall with the wider economy - booming in good times, sinking in downturns. Miners, carmakers and banks are classic examples. agricultural and energy markets outside the company's control
- natural gas price volatility in its main production regions
- global fertilizer oversupply from new production capacity
- agricultural commodity price cycles affecting farmer purchasing
- environmental and regulatory costs tied to gas-intensive production
The write-up's own warning lights — if these start happening, the case above changes.
- natural gas prices spiking without a matching rise in fertilizer prices
- global nitrogen capacity additions exceeding demand growth
- crop prices falling sharply and reducing farmer fertilizer purchases
- reported margins compressing versus recent levels
Common questions about CF Industries
Does CF Industries pay a dividend?
Yes - CF Industries currently pays a dividend of about 2.0% a year. Dividends are a share of profit paid to holders; the yield moves with the price and payouts can be cut.
When does CF Industries report earnings next?
CF Industries is next scheduled to report results on about 2026-11-04. Report dates are estimates and can move; this is a diary note for when to look, not a forecast of the outcome.
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